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Many emerging and reemerging viruses, such as rabies, SARS, Marburg, and Ebola have bat populations as disease reservoirs. Understanding the spillover from bats to humans and other animals, and the associated health risks requires an analysis of the disease dynamics in bat populations. Traditional compartmental epizootic models, which are relatively easy to(More)
BACKGROUND To date different vaginal gel microbicides have been evaluated in phase 2b/3 trials, but none have demonstrated effectiveness for preventing HIV infection. Failure to demonstrate effectiveness however does not necessarily indicate that a product is truly inefficacious, as several sources of efficacy dilution may compromise our ability to identify(More)
Bats are natural reservoirs of rabies. We address the maintenance of the disease in bat colonies by developing individual and population models that generate indicators of risk of rabies to bats, that provide dynamic estimates of effects of rabies on population densities, and that suggest consequences of viral exposures and infections in bats relative to(More)
The ecology and life history of rabies viruses in bats suggest a need for an integrated modelling treatment that extends beyond traditional epidemiological approaches. We modify our adaptive modelling approach to investigate the effects of immune system structure and immunological mixing events on the disease profile of the bat colony and subsequently on(More)
OBJECTIVES To produce an effect on the HIV epidemic, preventive interventions need to achieve a minimum level of efficacy to offset potential indirect effects such as an increase in risky behavior. The current generation of HIV prevention trials on oral preexposure prophylaxis and on vaginal microbicides were designed using different set points for minimum(More)
Mathematical models have been used to simulate HIV transmission and to study the use of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. Often a single intervention outcome over 10 years has been used to evaluate the effectiveness of PrEP interventions. However, different metrics express a wide variation over time and often disagree in their forecast on(More)
General multi-dimensional autonomous dynamical systems and their numerical discretizations are considered. Nonstandard stability-preserving finite-difference schemes based on the θ-methods and the second-order Runge-Kutta methods are designed and analyzed. Their elementary stability is established theoretically and is also supported by a set of numerical(More)
Viral infections are one of the leading source of mortality worldwide. The great majority of them circulate and persist in wild reservoirs and periodically spill over into humans or domestic animals. In the wild reservoirs, the progression of disease is frequently quite different from that in spillover hosts. We propose a mathematical treatment of the(More)
Vaginal microbicides (VMB) are currently among the few women-initiated biomedical interventions for preventing heterosexual transmission of HIV. In this paper we use a deterministic model of HIV transmission to assess the public-health benefits of a VMB intervention and evaluate its gender-specific impact over short (initial) and extended periods of time.(More)