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As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure(More)
By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based(More)
Although the effects of climate change on species distributions have received considerable attention, land-use change continues to threaten wildlife by contributing to habitat loss and degradation. We compared projected spatial impacts of climate change and housing development across a range of housing densities on California’s birds to evaluate the(More)
Tidal marshes maintain elevation relative to sea level through accumulation of mineral and organic matter, yet this dynamic accumulation feedback mechanism has not been modeled widely in the context of accelerated sea-level rise. Uncertainties exist about tidal marsh resiliency to accelerated sea-level rise, reduced sediment supply, reduced plant(More)
We evaluated landscape associations related to heron and egret colony site selection and the productivity of successful great blue heron (Ardea herodias) and great egret (Ardea alba) nests. The study was based on annual observations (1991–2005) at 45 colony sites known to be active within 10 km of historic tidal marshes of northern San Francisco Bay. The(More)
We modeled the abundance or probability of occurrence of several tidal-marsh-dependent birds found in the San Francisco Bay estuary—the San Pablo Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia samuelis), Alameda Song Sparrow (M. m. pusillula), Suisun Song Sparrow (M. m. maxillaris), Salt Marsh Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas sinuosa), California Black Rail(More)
Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide an important tool for conservation of marine ecosystems. To be most effective, these areas should be strategically located in a manner that supports ecosystem function. To inform marine spatial planning and support strategic establishment of MPAs within the California Current System, we identified areas predicted to(More)
BACKGROUND Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities. METHODOLOGY Building upon established models, we(More)
Quantifying the relative contributions of environmental conditions and spatial factors to species distribution can help improve our understanding of the processes that drive diversity patterns. In this study, based on tree inventory, topography and soil data from a 20-ha stem-mapped permanent forest plot in Guangdong Province, China, we evaluated the(More)