Dennis V. Lindley

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We consider the problem of drawing inferences within a legal framework when a person is a suspect for two separate offences. Although we are primarily concerned with scientific evidence the issue inevitably arises as to how that evidence interacts with other, non-scientific evidence. We show that, in this particular context, the evidence can be conveniently(More)
SUMMARY After discussing the role of prior information in statistical inference, historically and in current problems, we analyze the problem of seasonal adjustment i n economics. Litterman 1980 has shown how informative priors for autoregressive coeecients can improve economic forecasts. We nd that in seasonal adjustment informative priors can have a m uch(More)
Civitas is a registered charity (no. 1085494) and a company limited by guarantee, registered in England and Wales (no. 04023541) Society is a registered educational charity (No. 1085494) and a company limited by guarantee (No. 04023541). Civitas is financed from a variety of private sources to avoid over‐ reliance on any single or small group of donors. All(More)
A number of individuals is observed at the beginning of a period. At the end of the period the number is surviving, the number who have died and the number who have withdrawn are noted. From these three numbers it is required to estimate the death rate for the period. All relevant quantities are supposed independent and identically distributed for the(More)