David W. Kicklighter

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There are pressing reasons for developing a better understanding of net primary production (NPP) in the world’s forests. These ecosystems play a large role in the world’s carbon budget, and their dynamics, which are likely to be responding to global changes in climate and atmospheric composition, have major economic implications and impacts on global(More)
Rising atmospheric CO 2 and temperatures are probably altering ecosystem carbon cycling, causing both positive and negative feedbacks to climate. Below-ground processes play a key role in the global carbon (C) cycle because they regulate storage of large quantities of C, and are potentially very sensitive to direct and indirect effects of elevated CO 2 and(More)
We use a mechanistically based ecosystem simulation model to describe and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in South America. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) is designed to predict major carbon and nitrogen fluxes and pool sizes in terrestrial ecosystems at continental to global scales. Information(More)
  • J Ole, E I R N A N N, +12 authors U Wittenbergs
  • 2001
The concurrent effects of increasing atmospheric CO, concentration, climate variability, and cropland establishment and abandonment on terrestrial carbon storage between 1920 and 1992 were assessed using a standard simulat~on protocol with four process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Over the long-term (1920-1992), the simulations yielded a tlme history(More)
The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink from CO2 and(More)
A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the(More)
To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in climate projections under two different policy scenarios. This study illustrates an internally consistent uncertainty analysis of one(More)
[1] We develop and use a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in high-latitude soils of the Northern Hemisphere have changed over the past century in response to observed changes in the region’s climate. We estimate that the net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from(More)
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003, substantial improvements have been made to the model, and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters(More)
[1] Terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high latitudes (above 50 N) exchange large amounts of CO2 and CH4 with the atmosphere each year. Here we use a process-based model to estimate the budget of CO2 and CH4 of the region for current climate conditions and for future scenarios by considering effects of permafrost dynamics, CO2 fertilization of(More)