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We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future(More)
Civil unrest (protests, strikes, and “occupy” events) is a common occurrence in both democracies and authoritarian regimes. The study of civil unrest is a key topic for political scientists as it helps capture an important mechanism by which citizenry express themselves. In countries where civil unrest is lawful, qualitative analysis has revealed that more(More)
Increasingly, drug use prevention programs and research are being considered in the environmental contexts in which they occur. One context that is rarely considered is the political context. This article examines the reciprocal effects of policy and prevention programs from four perspectives representing different contexts, beginning with political(More)
As a surrogate data source for many real-world phenomena, social media such as Twitter can yield key insight into people's behavior and their group affiliations and memberships. As an event unfolds on Twitter, the language, hashtags, and vocabulary used to describe it evolves over time, so that it is difficult to a priori capture the composition of a social(More)
EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events,currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our(More)
Microblogging sites like Twitter provide a platform for sharing ideas and expressing opinions. The widespread popularity of these platforms and the complex social structure that arises within these communities provides a unique opportunity to understand the interactions between users. The political domain, especially in a multi-party system, presents(More)
Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) spectroscopy is an extremely sensitive analytical technique that is capable of identifying the vibration signatures of target molecules up to single-molecule sensitivity. In this work, the ultrahigh sensitivity of SERS has been achieved through the immobilization of sharp-edges specific nanoparticles - so-called gold(More)
Metaphors shape the way people think, decide, and act. We hypothesize that large-scale variations in metaphor usage in blogs can be used as an indicator of societal events. To this end, we use metaphor analysis on a massive scale to study blogs in Latin America over a period ranging from 2000-2015, with most of our data occurring within a nine-year period.(More)