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Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to(More)
Malaria presents public health challenge despite extensive intervention campaigns. A 30-year hindcast of the climatic suitability for malaria transmission in India is presented, using meteorological variables from a state of the art seasonal forecast model to drive a process-based, dynamic disease model. The spatial distribution and seasonal cycles of(More)
Key Points: • Predictions can appear overdispersive due to hindcast length sampling error • Longer hindcasts are more robust and underdispersive, especially in the tropics • Twenty hindcasts are an inadequate sample size to assess seasonal forecast skill This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which(More)
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