David A. Bessler

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PREFACE The global food system, driven by consumer demand, technology, and the liberalization of international markets, is changing dramatically. Agriculture is striving to keep pace. Producers are seeing unprecedented demand for change in all aspects of their businesses. No commodity system reflects this new environment more completely than the hog/pork(More)
This article examines the price discovery performance of futures markets for storable and nonstorable commodities in the long run, allowing for the compounding factor of stochastic interest rates. The evidence shows that asset storability does not affect the existence of cointegration between cash and futures prices and the usefulness of future markets in(More)
This study investigates the relationship between consumer debt and aggregate economic activity based on time series methods and directed acyclic graphs (DAG). Quarterly US data, measured over the period 1980 to 2003, on consumer debt, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, housing starts, and domestic auto sales, are analysed in an Error Correction(More)
A Causal Model of Linkages among Strategy, Structure and Performance using Directed Acyclic Graphs: A Manufacturing Subset of the Fortune 500 Industrials 1990 1998. (May 2003) Hogun Chong, B.Econ., Seoul National University; M.Econ., Seoul National University; M.S., University of Arkansas Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. David Bessler This research explored(More)
Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest these markets are highly interconnected but it is the inland commodity market that is strongly influenced(More)
Monthly observations on prices from 10 weight/gender classifications of Nebraska beef cattle are studied in an error correction model (ECM) framework. This study attempts a replication of the 2003 paper on Texas prices by Bessler and Davis, where they find medium heifers (600–700 lb) at the center of price discovery. Using the ECM results Nebraska light(More)
This study investigates the potential impacts of food safety outbreaks on domestic shipments, imports, and prices of the produce industry. Three case studies were analyzed to assess these potential impacts: the cantaloupe outbreak of March–April 2008, the spinach outbreak of September 2006, and the tomato outbreak of June–July 2008. Data-determined(More)
100 Word Abstract: Using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models we study the dynamics of the notoriously volatile international freight prices that comprise the Baltic Panamax Index, the index on which freight futures trading is based. The DAG's are used to make definitive statements about the contemporaneous correlations between prices(More)
Since Quenouille’s influential work on multiple time series, much progress has been made towards the goal of parameter reduction and model fit. Relatively less attention has been paid to the systematic evaluation of out-of-sample forecast performance of multivariate time series models. In this paper, we update the hog data set studied by Quenouille (and(More)