David A. Bessler

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Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest these markets are highly interconnected but it is the inland commodity market that is strongly influenced(More)
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical studies selected from Journal of Consumer Research. A total of 1,736 predictions were obtained from 16 academics, 12 practitioners, and 43 high school students: The(More)
PREFACE The global food system, driven by consumer demand, technology, and the liberalization of international markets, is changing dramatically. Agriculture is striving to keep pace. Producers are seeing unprecedented demand for change in all aspects of their businesses. No commodity system reflects this new environment more completely than the hog/pork(More)
The paper considers the use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and their construction from observational data with PC-algorithm TETRAD II, in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression. Results from Sims' 1986 model of the US economy are replicated and compared using these data-driven techniques. The directed(More)
We present direct empirical evidence that short sellers enhance the informational efficiency of prices. Using daily shorting flow data for a large panel of NYSE-listed stocks, we first show that greater shorting flow reduces deviations of transaction prices from a random walk. Second, at lower frequencies, we show that more shorting flow accelerates the(More)
Recent advances in modeling directed acyclic graphs are used to sort-out causal patterns among a set of thirteen measures deemed relevant to the incidence of world poverty. Cross-section measures of the percent of population living on one and two dollars or less per day from eighty low income countries are exposed to a battery of tests of conditional(More)
This study investigates financial contagion among seven international stock markets around the October 19, 1987 crash. Building on a recent advance in vector autoregression analysis by [Swanson, N., Granger, C.W.J., 1997. Impulse response functions based on a causal approach to residual orthogonalization in vector autoregression. Journal of the American(More)
100 Word Abstract: Using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models we study the dynamics of the notoriously volatile international freight prices that comprise the Baltic Panamax Index, the index on which freight futures trading is based. The DAG's are used to make definitive statements about the contemporaneous correlations between prices(More)
This study investigates the relationship between consumer debt and aggregate economic activity based on time series methods and directed acyclic graphs (DAG). Quarterly US data, measured over the period 1980 to 2003, on consumer debt, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, housing starts, and domestic auto sales, are analysed in an Error Correction(More)