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lity of Michigan sity of Pennsylvania versity {emorial Hospital and Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the(More)
Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants(More)
The Day Reconstruction Method (DRM) assesses how people spend their time and how they experience the various activities and settings of their lives, combining features of time-budget measurement and experience sampling. Participants systematically reconstruct their activities and experiences of the preceding day with procedures designed to reduce recall(More)
We discuss the cognitive and the psy-chophysical determinants of choice in risky and risk-less contexts. The psychophysics of value induce risk aversion in the domain of gains and risk seeking in the domain of losses. The psychophysics of chance induce overweighting of sure things and of improbable events, relative to events of moderate probability.(More)
Neural responses accompanying anticipation and experience of monetary gains and losses were monitored by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Trials comprised an initial "prospect" (expectancy) phase, when a set of three monetary amounts was displayed, and a subsequent "outcome" phase, when one of these amounts was awarded. Hemodynamic responses in the(More)
Intuitive predictions follow a judgmental heuristic—representativeness. By this heuristic, people predict the outcome that appears most representative of the evidence. Consequently, intuitive predictions are insensitive to the reliability of the evidence or to the prior probability of the outcome, in violation of the logic of statistical prediction. The(More)
Two core meanings of " utility " are distinguished. " Decision utility " is the weight of an outcome in a decision. " Experienced utility " is hedonic quality, as in Bentham's usage. Experienced utility can be reported in real time (instant utility), or in retrospective evaluations of past episodes (remembered utility). Psychological research has documented(More)