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Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data
TLDR
The most commonly used statistical models of civil war onset fail to correctly predict most occurrences of this rare event in out-of-sample data. Expand
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Navigating Random Forests and related advances in algorithmic modeling
TLDR
This article addresses current methodological research on nonparametric Random Forests. Expand
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Thinking Outside the Bloc: Explaining the Foreign Policies of Small States
What explains change and continuity in the foreign policy behavior of small states? Given the proliferation of small states over the past century, this topic has received relatively little systematicExpand
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External Rebel Sponsorship and Civilian Abuse: A Principal-Agent Analysis of Wartime Atrocities
Abstract Although some rebel groups work hard to foster collaborative ties with civilians, others engage in egregious abuses and war crimes. We argue that foreign state funding for rebelExpand
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Prometheus Bound
The Promethean Dilemma claims to challenge the current wisdom on third-party statebuilding. It contends that contemporary policy-makers and scholars mistakenly identify the early transfer of coerciveExpand
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Lost Autonomy, Nationalism and Separatism
Case studies suggest that ethnic groups with autonomous institutional arrangements are more prone to secede, but other evidence indicates that autonomy reduces the likelihood of secession. To addressExpand
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Potentiometric and spectroscopic study of uranyl complexation with humic acids.
By potentiometric study using a specific uranyl ion-selective electrode, the formation of 1:1 and 1:2 (metal:ligand) complexes of uranyl with various humic acids (HAs) was found. The conditionalExpand
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E Pluribus Unum?
In multinational states, developing a strong sense of civic nationalism among minorities is critical to creating social order. Countries that fail to cultivate civic nationalism among minorities canExpand
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Ethnicity, class, and civil war: the role of hierarchy, segmentation, and cross-cutting cleavages
Abstract Why are some countries prone to ethno-nationalist conflict, whereas others are plagued by class conflict? This is a question that has seldom been raised and rarely been examined empirically.Expand
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Neoclassical realism and small states: systemic constraints and domestic filters in Georgia’s foreign policy
ABSTRACT Unlike structural realism, neoclassical realism focuses on how the interaction between systemic and unit-level variables influences foreign policy. This article assesses neoclassical realismExpand
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