• Publications
  • Influence
Demographic Forecasting
  • 170
  • 27
Between a rock and a hard place: The evaluation of demographic forecasts
Forecasting, in general, has been described as an unavoidable yet impossible task. This irony, which comprises the ‘rock’ and the ‘hard place’ in the title, creates a high level of cognitiveExpand
  • 37
  • 8
The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai‵i
Abstract Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai‵i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows wereExpand
  • 107
  • 7
In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts
TLDR
We examine nonlinear transformations of the forecasterror distribution in hopes of finding a summary errormeasure that is not prone to an upward bias and usesmost of the information about that error. Expand
  • 26
  • 5
Practical Frequency and Time Optimal Design of Passive Linear Vibration Isolation Mounts
Summary In this paper we examine a linear one-degree of freedom vibration isolator mount. The linearity of the system allows us to analyze its frequency and time response characteristicsExpand
  • 44
  • 4
Ruffed Grouse Population Ecology in the Appalachian Region
Abstract The Appalachian Cooperative Grouse Research Project (ACGRP) was a multistate cooperative effort initiated in 1996 to investigate the apparent decline of ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) andExpand
  • 40
  • 4
  • PDF
Specific Androgen Receptor Activation by an Artificial Coactivator*
Transcription activation of steroid receptors, such as the androgen receptor (AR), is mediated by coactivators, which bridge the receptor to the preinitiation complex. To develop a tool for studyingExpand
  • 40
  • 3
On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecast accuracy
The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is the summary measure most often used for evaluating the accuracy of population forecasts. While MAPE has many desirable criteria, we argue from both normativeExpand
  • 70
  • 3
Subnational Population Estimates
1: Introduction.- 2: Basic Concepts.- 3: Data Sources.- 4: Basic Measures.- 5: An Overview of Estimates Methods.- 6: Extrapolation Methods.- 7: Housing Unit Method.- 8: Regression Methods.- 9: CensalExpand
  • 56
  • 3
Hawaiian cultural influences on support for lava flow hazard mitigation measures during the January 1960 eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Kapoho, Hawai‘i
Abstract In 1960, Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii erupted, destroying most of the village of Kapoho and forcing evacuation of its approximately 300 residents. A large and unprecedented social scienceExpand
  • 21
  • 3
  • PDF