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Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
TLDR
A systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters, which produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation.
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UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections
Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
TLDR
Results from the ‘climateprediction.net’ experiment are presented, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details, finding model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11’K.
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Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios
Abstract. In this study we examine the anthropogenically forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 to present, and projected response to 2100, using updated emissions scenarios and an…
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UK Climate Projections Briefing Report
This report provides a summary of the 2009 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), consolidating for the general reader the scientific reports describing the methodology and some key projections of future…
Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change
Ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model simulations are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate change. “Perturbed physics” ensembles provide a new…
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Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861
We present the first analysis of global and hemispheric surface warming trends that attempts to quantify the major sources of uncertainty. We calculate global and hemispheric annual temperature…
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The new hadley centre climate model (HadGEM1) : Evaluation of coupled simulations
Abstract A new coupled general circulation climate model developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre is presented, and aspects of its performance in climate simulations run for the Intergovernmental…
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Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide
TLDR
The physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is comparable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change.
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Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change
The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose…
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