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- Publications
- Influence
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
- J. Murphy, D. Sexton, +4 authors D. Stainforth
- Environmental Science, Medicine
- Nature
- 12 August 2004
Comprehensive global climate models are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners are… Expand
Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios
- T. Johns, J. Gregory, +9 authors M. Woodage
- Environmental Science
- 18 February 2003
Abstract.
In this study we examine the anthropogenically forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 to present, and projected response to 2100, using updated emissions scenarios and an… Expand
UK Climate Projections Briefing Report
This report provides a summary of the 2009 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), consolidating for the general reader the scientific reports describing the methodology and some key projections of future… Expand
- 314
- 49
Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change
Ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model simulations are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate change. “Perturbed physics” ensembles provide a new… Expand
Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861
- C. Folland, N. Rayner, +8 authors D. Sexton
- Environmental Science
- 1 July 2001
We present the first analysis of global and hemispheric surface warming trends that attempts to quantify the major sources of uncertainty. We calculate global and hemispheric annual temperature… Expand
Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles
- M. Collins, B. Booth, +4 authors M. Webb
- 1 May 2011
Ensembles of climate model simulations are required for input into probabilistic assessments of the risk of future climate change in which uncertainties are quantified. Here we document and compare… Expand
A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles
- J. M. Murphy, B. Booth, M. Collins, G. Harris, D. Sexton, M. Webb
- Medicine, Physics
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A…
- 15 August 2007
A methodology is described for probabilistic predictions of future climate. This is based on a set of ensemble simulations of equilibrium and time-dependent changes, carried out by perturbing poorly… Expand
Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change
- Manoj Joshi, J. Gregory, M. Webb, D. Sexton, T. Johns
- Environmental Science
- 1 April 2008
The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whose… Expand
Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide
- R. Betts, O. Boucher, +8 authors M. Webb
- Environmental Science, Medicine
- Nature
- 30 August 2007
In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology. Plant… Expand