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Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
Comprehensive global climate models are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners areExpand
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UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections
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Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios
Abstract. In this study we examine the anthropogenically forced climate response over the historical period, 1860 to present, and projected response to 2100, using updated emissions scenarios and anExpand
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UK Climate Projections Briefing Report
This report provides a summary of the 2009 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), consolidating for the general reader the scientific reports describing the methodology and some key projections of futureExpand
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Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change
Ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model simulations are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate change. “Perturbed physics” ensembles provide a newExpand
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Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861
We present the first analysis of global and hemispheric surface warming trends that attempts to quantify the major sources of uncertainty. We calculate global and hemispheric annual temperatureExpand
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Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles
Ensembles of climate model simulations are required for input into probabilistic assessments of the risk of future climate change in which uncertainties are quantified. Here we document and compareExpand
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A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles
A methodology is described for probabilistic predictions of future climate. This is based on a set of ensemble simulations of equilibrium and time-dependent changes, carried out by perturbing poorlyExpand
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Mechanisms for the land/sea warming contrast exhibited by simulations of climate change
The land/sea warming contrast is a phenomenon of both equilibrium and transient simulations of climate change: large areas of the land surface at most latitudes undergo temperature changes whoseExpand
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Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide
In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology. PlantExpand
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