• Publications
  • Influence
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
Abstract The pattern of overconfidence and underconfidence observed in studies of intuitive judgment is explained by the hypothesis that people focus on the strength or extremeness of the availableExpand
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A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship
TLDR
We develop a hubris theory of entrepreneurship to explain why so many new ventures are created in the shadow of high venture failure rates: More confident actors are moved to start ventures, and then act on such confidence when deciding how to allocate resources in their ventures. Expand
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Modeling the personality of dyads and groups.
The paper presents a methodological approach for assessing the personality of a dyad or a group, a concept that is not equivalent to the sum, or mean, of the individual scores. We illustrate how theExpand
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Perspectives on prediction: Does third-person imagery improve task completion estimates?
Abstract People typically underestimate the time necessary to complete their tasks. According to the planning fallacy model of optimistic time predictions, this underestimation occurs because peopleExpand
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First report of potato tuber necrotic ringspot disease associated with PVY recombinant strains in Ireland.
Potato tuber necrotic ringspot disease (PTNRD) as described by Kus et al., (1992) is found worldwide but has not previously been identified in Ireland. In recent years necrotic symptoms, veinalExpand
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Molecular characterization of Ralstonia solanacearum strains from Ethiopia and tracing potential source of bacterial wilt disease outbreak in seed potatoes
Bacterial wilt, caused by Ralstonia solanacearum, is emerging as a major threat to potato production in Ethiopia, reaching epidemic proportions in the Chencha district recently, with a prevalence ofExpand
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Models of dyadic social interaction.
  • D. Griffin, R. Gonzalez
  • Psychology, Medicine
  • Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society…
  • 29 March 2003
We discuss the logic of research designs for dyadic interaction and present statistical models with parameters that are tied to psychologically relevant constructs. Building on Karl Pearson's classicExpand
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