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Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases
We analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model. Expand
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Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility
BackgroundOn 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. As of 19 July, 137,232 cases of the H1N1Expand
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Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: The GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model
We present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. Expand
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Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: Agent-based versus structured metapopulation models
We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation Stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. Expand
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Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm
BackgroundMathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-timeExpand
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Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns
Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including: spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however areExpand
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Assessing the Ecotoxicologic Hazards of a Pandemic Influenza Medical Response
Background: The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been givenExpand
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Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere
The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batchesExpand
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Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model
Determining the number of cases in an epidemic is fundamental to properly evaluate several disease features of high relevance for public health policies such as mortality, morbidity orExpand
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Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic
While the H1N1 pandemic is reaching high levels of influenza activity in the Northern Hemisphere, the attention focuses on the ability of national health systems to respond to the expected massiveExpand
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