Philosophers and social scientists have often argued (both implicitly and explicitly) that rational individuals can form irrational groups, and that, conversely, rational groups might be composed of… (More)

We evaluate the asymptotic performance of boundedly-rational strategies in multi-armed bandit problems, where performance is measured in terms of the tendency (in the limit) to play optimal actions… (More)

In medicine and the social sciences, researchers often measure only a handful of variables simultaneously. The underlying assumption behind this methodology is that combining the results of dozens of… (More)

Over the past two decades, several consistent procedures have been designed to infer causal conclusions from observational data. We prove that if the true causal network might be an arbitrary, linear… (More)

Ockham’s razor is the principle that, all other things being equal, rational scientists ought to prefer simpler theories to more complex ones. In recent years, philosophers have argued the simpler… (More)

Acknowledgments As is obvious from the number of citations to his work and the style of the central argument in what follows, I owe an enormous intellectual debt to Kevin Kelly. Kevin spent endless… (More)

We evaluate the asymptotic performance of boundedly-rational strategies in multi-armed bandit problems, where performance is measured in terms of the tendency (in the limit) to play optimal actions… (More)

Ockham’s razor is the principle that, all other things being equal, it is rational to prefer simpler scientific theories to more complex ones. In a series of a papers, Kelly, Glymour, and Schulte… (More)

Jim Joyce argues for two amendments to probabilism. The first is the doctrine that credences are rational, or not, in virtue of their accuracy or “closeness to the truth” (1998). The second is a… (More)

A dynamical system is called “chaotic” if small changes to its initial conditions can create large changes in its behavior. By analogy, call a dynamical system “structurally chaotic” if small changes… (More)