Atmospheric ensemble and ad joint systems can provide valuable insight into the practical limitations of our ability to predict the path of tropical cyclones and their strength. An ensemble forecast system can be used to address tropical cyclone forecast uncertainty. An ad joint model can be used for the efficient and rigorous computation of numerical… (More)
Using sensitivity calculations, it's possible to better understand complex influences on typhoon evolution from organized convection to larger-scale weather systems. With Typhoon Lupit, for example, the rapid growth of small perturbations led to multiple errors that limited the accuracy of path and intensity forecasts.