Christopher H. Jackson

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Many chronic diseases have a natural interpretation in terms of staged progression. Multistate models based on Markov processes are a well-established method of estimating rates of transition between stages of disease. However, diagnoses of disease stages are sometimes subject to error. The paper presents a general hidden Markov model for simultaneously(More)
Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of(More)
Routinely collected administrative data sets, such as national registers, aim to collect information on a limited number of variables for the whole population. In contrast, survey and cohort studies contain more detailed data from a sample of the population. This paper describes Bayesian graphical models for fitting a common regression model to a(More)
Health economic decision models are subject to various forms of uncertainty, including uncertainty about the parameters of the model and about the model structure. These uncertainties can be handled within a Bayesian framework, which also allows evidence from previous studies to be combined with the data. As an example, we consider a Markov model for(More)
OBJECTIVES (1) To model the natural history of anal neoplasia in HIV-infected patients using a 3-state Markov model of anal cancer pathogenesis, adjusting for cytology misclassification; and (2) to estimate the effects of selected time-varying covariates on transition probabilities. DESIGN A retrospective cytology-based inception screening cohort of(More)
OBJECTIVES To compare outcomes and cost-effectiveness of various initial imaging strategies in the management of stable chest pain in a long-term prospective randomised trial. SETTING Regional cardiothoracic referral centre in the east of England. PARTICIPANTS 898 patients (69% man) entered the study with 869 alive at 2 years of follow-up. Patients were(More)
Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) represents the only curative treatment for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), but involves non-negligible morbidity and mortality. Registry studies have shown that advanced disease stage at transplantation is associated with inferior overall survival. To define the optimal timing of(More)
OBJECTIVE To explore methods for statistical modelling of minimal disease activity (MDA) based on data from intermittent clinic visits. METHODS The analysis was based on a 2-state model. Comparisons were made between analyses based on "complete case" data from visits at which MDA status was known, and the use of hidden model methodology that incorporated(More)
The study aim is to compare anal intraepithelial neoplasia (AIN) progression and regression rates in a cytology inception cohort to estimates based on the subcohort referred for ≥1 high-resolution anoscopies (HRAs).A cytology-based retrospective cohort was assembled including the anal cytology histories and invasive anal cancer (IAC) outcomes of all(More)
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