Christopher Fonnesbeck

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Probabilistic programming allows for automatic Bayesian inference on user-defined probabilistic models. Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling allow inference on increasingly complexmodels. This class ofMCMC, known as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, requires gradient information which is often not readily available. PyMC3 is a new open source(More)
Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach(More)
Though the control of blood phenylalanine (Phe) levels is essential for minimizing impairment in individuals with phenylketonuria (PKU), the empirical basis for the selection of specific blood Phe levels as targets has not been evaluated. We evaluated the current evidence that particular Phe levels are optimal for minimizing or avoiding cognitive impairment(More)
Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian(More)
The recent development of statistical models such as dynamic site occupancy models provides the opportunity to address fairly complex management and conservation problems with relatively simple models. However, surprisingly few empirical studies have simultaneously modeled habitat suitability and occupancy status of organisms over large landscapes for(More)
BACKGROUND Disruptive behavior disorders are among the most common child and adolescent psychiatric disorders and associated with significant impairment. OBJECTIVE Systematically review studies of psychosocial interventions for children with disruptive behavior disorders. METHODS We searched Medline (via PubMed), Embase, and PsycINFO. Two reviewers(More)
Progestogen has been investigated as a preventive intervention among women with increased preterm birth risk. Our objective was to systematically review the effectiveness of intramuscular (IM), vaginal, and oral progestogens for preterm birth and neonatal death prevention. We included articles published from January 1966 to January 2013 and found 27(More)
OBJECTIVE We systematically reviewed the effectiveness of progestogens for prevention of preterm birth among women with prior spontaneous preterm birth, multiple gestations, preterm labor, short cervix, or other indications. DATA SOURCES We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for English language articles published from January 1966 to October 2011. (More)
CONTEXT Infantile hemangiomas (IH) may be associated with significant functional impact. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to meta-analyze studies of pharmacologic interventions for children with IH. DATA SOURCES Data sources were Medline and other databases from 1982 to June 2015. STUDY SELECTION Two reviewers assessed studies using(More)