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Probabilistic programming allows for automatic Bayesian inference on user-defined probabilistic models. Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling allow inference on increasingly complex models. This class of MCMC, known as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, requires gradient information which is often not readily available. PyMC3 is a new open(More)
UNLABELLED Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of bronchiolitis and viral pneumonia in infants and young children worldwide. In the Middle East and Arab countries, the burden of RSV-associated hospitalizations is not well characterized. We sought to determine the burden and clinical/epidemiological characteristics of RSV hospitalization(More)
PURPOSE Progestogen has been investigated as a preventive intervention among women with increased preterm birth risk. Our objective was to systematically review the effectiveness of intramuscular (IM), vaginal, and oral progestogens for preterm birth and neonatal death prevention. METHODS We included articles published from January 1966 to January 2013(More)
Fecal sampling is widely utilized to define small intestinal tissue-level microbial communities in healthy and diseased newborns. However, this approach may lead to inaccurate assessments of disease or therapeutics in newborns because of the assumption that the taxa in the fecal microbiota are representative of the taxa present throughout the(More)
Optimal intervention for disease outbreaks is often impeded by severe scientific uncertainty. Adaptive management (AM), long-used in natural resource management, is a structured decision-making approach to solving dynamic problems that accounts for the value of resolving uncertainty via real-time evaluation of alternative models. We propose an AM approach(More)
Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian(More)
The recent development of statistical models such as dynamic site occupancy models provides the opportunity to address fairly complex management and conservation problems with relatively simple models. However, surprisingly few empirical studies have simultaneously modeled habitat suitability and occupancy status of organisms over large landscapes for(More)
The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial(More)