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BACKGROUND On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. As of 19 July, 137,232 cases of the H1N1 influenza strain have been officially confirmed in 142 different countries, and the pandemic unfolding in the Southern hemisphere is now under scrutiny to gain(More)
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to investigate the conditions for propagation, and to predict the spatial spread. Several assumptions are being considered to(More)
Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several areas in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from southern Florida to Brazil, and the Caribbean is a highly connected region in terms of population movements. There is therefore a significant risk for the epidemic to quickly expand to a wide(More)
The increasing Internet coverage and the widespread use of digital devices offer the possibility to develop new digital surveillance systems potentially capable to provide important aid to epidemiological and public health monitoring and research. In France, a new nationwide surveillance system for influenza-like illness, GrippeNet.fr, was introduced since(More)
BACKGROUND Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for(More)
The emergence of the novel Middle East (ME) respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has raised global public health concerns regarding the current situation and its future evolution. Here we propose an integrative maximum likelihood analysis of both cluster data in the ME and importations in a set of European countries to assess the transmission(More)
While the H1N1 pandemic is reaching high levels of influenza activity in the Northern Hemisphere, the attention focuses on the ability of national health systems to respond to the expected massive influx of additional patients. Given the limited capacity of health care providers and hospitals and the limited supplies of antibiotics, it is important to(More)
After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following(More)
The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes occurring on it and affect the condition at which epidemics become possible , as encoded in the epidemic threshold parameter. Despite the great interest of the problem for the physics, applied mathematics, and epidemiology communities, its(More)
The quick spread of an Ebola outbreak in West Africa has led a number of countries and airline companies to issue travel bans to the affected areas. Considering data up to 31 Aug 2014, we assess the impact of the resulting traffic reductions with detailed numerical simulations of the international spread of the epidemic. Traffic reductions are shown to(More)