Chen-Yuan Tung

Learn More
BACKGROUND The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan,(More)
BACKGROUND The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction(More)
Prediction markets have been adopted to forecast events (trends) and manage risks related to the events in different projects. This paper scrutinises the first prediction market system (PMS) established in Taiwan, which shows favourable accuracy of the PMS in predicting infectious diseases comparing with expected value of historical data for the same(More)
  • 1