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Explaining political jiu-jitsu
The use of violent coercion to repress unarmed protests, such as that seen during the Arab Spring, sometimes backfires on the government – an outcome called ‘political jiu-jitsu’. Examining uniqueExpand
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Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide
We present what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first published set of annual out-of-sample forecasts of genocide and politicide based on a global dataset. Our goal is to produce a prototypeExpand
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Manufacturing Dissent
A growing research field examines the conditions under which major nonviolent resistance campaigns—that is, popular nonviolent uprisings for regime or territorial change—are successful. Why theseExpand
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Geography and the outcomes of civil resistance and civil war
Abstract This paper reports the results of the first cross-national examination of the impact of the geography of nonviolent contention on regime transitions. Nonviolent tactics ‘work’ in part byExpand
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Genocide Forecasting: Past Accuracy and New Forecasts to 2020
ABSTRACT We assess the accuracy of genocide forecasts made by the Atrocity Forecasting Project (AFP) for 2011–15, and present new forecasts for 2016–20. Using data from the United Nations, GenocideExpand
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‘Capital punishment’
Civil wars show substantial variation in where they are fought. One dimension of this variation is the proximity of fighting to the capital city. While some wars are fought in the periphery, othersExpand
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Introducing the International System(s) Dataset (ISD), 1816–2011
We argue that the Correlates of War dataset on sovereign state membership has two weaknesses: a requirement that states maintain diplomatic relations with Britain and France, and a size inconsistencyExpand
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Alternative international systems? System structure and violent conflict in nineteenth-century West Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia
Were precolonial state systems different to the European model? If so, how did these state systems vary, and do variations in system structure influence the frequency of war? In this article weExpand
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Elections, Ethnicity, and Political Instability
This article provides a new perspective on the impact of elections on violent political instability in ethnically divided states. A number of scholars argue that elections may provoke large-scaleExpand
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