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A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in(More)
Individual human trajectories are characterized by fat-tailed distributions of jump sizes and waiting times, suggesting the relevance of continuous-time random-walk (CTRW) models for human mobility. However, human traces are barely random. Given the importance of human mobility, from epidemic modelling to traffic prediction and urban planning, we need(More)
The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers(More)
Our understanding of how individual mobility patterns shape and impact the social network is limited, but is essential for a deeper understanding of network dynamics and evolution. This question is largely unexplored, partly due to the difficulty in obtaining large-scale society-wide data that simultaneously capture the dynamical information on individual(More)
Covering a network with the minimum possible number of boxes can reveal interesting features for the network structure, especially in terms of self-similar or fractal characteristics. Considerable attention has been recently devoted to this problem, with the finding that many real networks are self-similar fractals. Here we present, compare and study in(More)
Information spreading processes are central to human interactions. Despite recent studies in online domains, little is known about factors that could affect the dissemination of a single piece of information. In this paper, we address this challenge by combining two related but distinct datasets, collected from a large scale privacy-preserving distributed(More)
An ability to predict the popularity dynamics of individual items within a complex evolving system has important implications in an array of areas. Here we propose a generative probabilistic framework using a reinforced Poisson process to explicitly model the process through which individual items gain their popularity. This model distinguishes itself from(More)