Carlos Castillo-Chavez

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We analyze the temporal evolution of emerging fields within several scientific disciplines in terms of numbers of authors and publications. From bibliographic searches we construct databases of authors, papers, and their dates of publication. We show that the temporal development of each field, while different in detail, is well described by population(More)
The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are(More)
The evolution of influenza A virus is linked to a non-fixed evolutionary landscape driven by tight co-evolutionary interactions between hosts and influenza strains. Herd-immunity, cross-immunity and age-structure are among the factors shown to support the coexistence of multiple strain oscillations. In this study, we incorporate two influenza strains and(More)
Control of the 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak control. The transmission rate and isolation effectiveness have the(More)
The study of spatially explicit integro-difference systems when the local population dynamics are given in terms of discrete-time generations models , has gained considerable attention over the past two decades. These nonlin-ear systems arise naturally in the study of the spatial dispersal of organisms. The brunt of the mathematical research on these(More)
BACKGROUND In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1) 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates(More)
Background The rapidly evolving 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa is the largest documented in history, both in terms of the number of people infected and in the geographic spread. The high morbidity and mortality have inspired response strategies to the outbreak at the individual, regional, and national levels. Methods to provide(More)
A heterosexually active population is exposed to two competing strains or two distinct sexually-transmitted pathogens. It is assumed that a host cannot be invaded simultaneously by both disease agents and that when symptoms appear, a function of the pathogen or strain virulence, individuals recover. We conclude that in a behaviorally and genetically(More)
An integrated quantitative approach to data assimilation, prediction and anomaly detection over real-time public health surveillance data streams is introduced. The importance of creating dynamical probabilistic models of disease dynamics capable of predicting future new cases from past and present disease incidence data is emphasized. Methods for real-time(More)