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BACKGROUND Africa is in an orphan-care crisis. In Zimbabwe, where one-fourth of adults are HIV-positive and one-fifth of children are orphans, AIDS and economic decline are straining society's ability to care for orphans within their extended families. Lack of stable care is putting thousands of children at heightened risk of malnourishment, emotional(More)
Anti-harm-reduction advocates sometimes resort to pseudo-analogies to ridicule harm reduction. Those opposed to the use of smokeless tobacco as an alternative to smoking sometimes suggest that the substitution would be like jumping from a 3 story building rather than 10 story, or like shooting yourself in the foot rather than the head. These metaphors are(More)
This commentary accompanies two articles submitted to Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations in response to a call for papers about threats to epidemiology or epidemiologists from organized political interests. Contrary to our expectations, we received no submissions that described threats from industry or government; all were about threats from(More)
Optimal use of epidemiologic findings in decision making requires more information than standard analyses provide. It requires calculating and reporting the total uncertainty in the results, which in turn requires methods for quantifying the uncertainty introduced by systematic error. Quantified uncertainty can improve policy and clinical decisions, better(More)
BACKGROUND The Pasitos Cohort Study has followed children in El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico since 1998 to identify determinants of Helicobacter pylori infection. This paper describes patterns of acquisition and elimination of H. pylori infection in 468 children from birth to 24 months. METHODS Mothers were recruited during pregnancy at(More)
PURPOSE The purpose of this study is to assess the costs and benefits of computer-aided surgical simulation (CASS) and to compare it with the current surgical planning methods for complex cranio-maxillofacial (CMF) surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS The comparison of methods applies to all CMF surgeries where the patient's condition is severe enough to(More)
Austin Bradford Hill's landmark 1965 paper contains several important lessons for the current conduct of epidemiology. Unfortunately, it is almost exclusively cited as the source of the "Bradford-Hill criteria" for inferring causation when association is observed, despite Hill's explicit statement that cause-effect decisions cannot be based on a set of(More)
BACKGROUND Although smokeless tobacco (ST) use has played a major role in the low smoking prevalence among Swedish men, there is little information at the population level about ST as a smoking cessation aid in the U.S. METHODS We used the 2000 National Health Interview Survey to derive population estimates for the number of smokers who had tried twelve(More)
BACKGROUND Publication bias, as typically defined, refers to the decreased likelihood of studies' results being published when they are near the null, not statistically significant, or otherwise "less interesting." But choices about how to analyze the data and which results to report create a publication bias within the published results, a bias I label(More)
BACKGROUND Compared to smoking cigarettes, use of Western smokeless tobacco (ST) products is associated with a very small risk of life-threatening disease (with estimates in the range of a few percent of the risk from smoking, or even less). This means that smokers can realize substantial health benefits by switching to ST, an obvious substitute. But(More)