Carl Boettiger

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Comparative methods used to study patterns of evolutionary change in a continuous trait on a phylogeny range from Brownian motion processes to models where the trait is assumed to evolve according to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Although these models have proved useful in a variety of contexts, they still do not cover all the scenarios biologists(More)
Phylogenetic comparative methods may fail to produce meaningful results when either the underlying model is inappropriate or the data contain insufficient information to inform the inference. The ability to measure the statistical power of these methods has become crucial to ensure that data quantity keeps pace with growing model complexity. Through(More)
As computational work becomes more and more integral to many aspects of scientific research, computational reproducibility has become an issue of increasing importance to computer systems researchers and domain scientists alike. Though computational reproducibility seems more straight forward than replicating physical experiments, the complex and rapidly(More)
Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the(More)
This article introduces a package that provides interactive and programmatic access to the FishBase repository. This package allows interaction with data on over 30 000 fish species in the rich statistical computing environment, R. This direct, scriptable interface to FishBase data enables better discovery and integration essential for large-scale(More)
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen(More)
Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on(More)
There has been much talk about tipping points over the past few years, and about the warning signals that may precede them. You could be forgiven for thinking that the forecasting of epidemics and stock-market crashes is just around the corner. But no one has yet managed to use the theory on early warning signals to predict a natural catastrophe. The(More)
In the study of Boettiger & Hastings [1], we demonstrated that conditioning on observing a purely stochastic transition from one stable basin to another could generate time-series trajectories that could be mistaken for an early warning signal of a critical transition (such as might be due to a fold bifurcation [2]), when instead the shift is merely due to(More)