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An Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scope emerged in West Africa in December 2013 and presently continues unabated in the countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. Ebola is not new to Africa, and outbreaks have been confirmed as far back as 1976. The current West African Ebola outbreak is the largest ever recorded and differs dramatically from prior(More)
BACKGROUND An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public(More)
In March 2013 an outbreak of avian influenza A(H7N9) was first recognized in China. To date there have been 130 cases in human, 47% of which are in men over the age of 55.The influenza strain is a novel subtype not seen before in humans; little is known about zoonotic transmission of the virus, but it is hypothesized that contact with poultry in live bird(More)
Your assertion that models of the Ebola epidemic have failed to project its course misrepresents their aims (see Nature 515, 18; 2014). They helped to inspire and inform the strong international response that may at last be slowing the epidemic (see M. F. C. Gomes et al. PLoS Curr. Outbreaks http://doi.org/ vvd; 2014). Subsequent models assessed the likely(More)
OBJECTIVE Recent availability of "big data" might be used to study whether and how sexual risk behaviors are communicated on real-time social networking sites and how data might inform HIV prevention and detection. This study seeks to establish methods of using real-time social networking data for HIV prevention by assessing 1) whether geolocated(More)
BACKGROUND The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was initially recognized as a source of severe respiratory illness and renal failure in 2012. Prior to 2014, MERS-CoV was mostly associated with sporadic cases of human illness, of presumed zoonotic origin, though chains of person-to-person transmission in the healthcare setting were(More)
In this paper we describe a multiagent simulation model of human behavior in the aftermath of a hypothetical, large-scale, human-initiated crisis in the center of Washington D.C. Prior studies of this scenario have focused on modeling the physical effects of the attack, such as thermal and blast effects , prompt radiation, and fallout. Casualty and(More)
We present a synthetic information and modeling environment that can allow policy makers to study various counter-factual experiments in the event of a large human-initiated crisis. The specific scenario we consider is a ground detonation caused by an improvised nuclear device in a large urban region. In contrast to earlier work in this area that focuses(More)