Caio A. S. Coelho

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This paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select climate and other covariates which are both readily available and prove significant in prediction of confirmed monthly dengue cases based(More)
This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: (i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and (ii) a multimodel system composed of three(More)
This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has been used to combine empirical and raw coupled model December SST Niño-3.4 index forecasts started at the end of the preceding July(More)
BACKGROUND With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553(More)
We develop a graphical interpretation of ternary probabilistic forecasts in which forecasts and observations are regarded as points inside a triangle. Within the triangle, we define a continuous colour palette in which hue and colour saturation are defined with reference to the observed climatology. In contrast to current methods, forecast maps created with(More)
This study investigates likely changes in mean and extreme precipitation over southern Africa in response to changes in radiative forcing using an ensemble of global climate models prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Extreme seasonal precipitation is defined in terms of 10-yr return levels(More)
Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model(More)
C. A. S. Coelho1, D. B. Stephenson1, F. J. Doblas-Reyes2, M. Balmaseda2, A. Guetter3 and G. J. van Oldenborgh4 1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom 3Instituto Tecnológico SIMEPAR, Centro(More)
This study addresses seasonal predictability of South American rainfall during ENSO. The skill of empirical and coupled multi-model predictions is assessed and compared. The empirical model uses the previous season AugustSeptember-October Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures as predictors for December-January-February rainfall. Coupled multi-model(More)