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Existing strategies for econometric analysis related to macroeconomics are subject to a number of serious objections, some recently formulated, some old. These objections are summarized in this
Implications of rational inattention
Abstract A constraint that actions can depend on observations only through a communication channel with finite Shannon capacity is shown to be able to play a role very similar to that of a signal
Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy☆
Existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed. Substantial room for disagreement among economists remains. New evidence, based on multivariate time series studies of
Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models
We describe methods for solving general linear rational expectations models in continuous or discrete timing with or without exogenous variables. The methods are based on matrix eigenvalue
Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions
A forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions is applied to ten macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations.
Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models
If dynamic multivariate models are to be used to guide decisionmaking, it is important that probability assessments of forecasts or policy projections be provided. When identified Bayesian vector
Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?
A multivariate model, identifying monetary policy and allowing for simultaneity and regime switching in coefficients and variances, is confronted with US data since 1959. The best fit is with a
Were there Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy
A multivariate regime-switching model for monetary policy is confronted with U.S. data. The best fit allows time variation in disturbance variances only. With coefficients allowed to change, the best
What Does Monetary Policy Do
This paper uses a single time frame and data set to present and analyze the results that have emerged from the recent empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy. It uses statistical