• Publications
  • Influence
Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem
This paper examines the reflection problem that arises when a researcher observing the distribution of behaviour in a population tries to infer whether the average behaviour in some group influencesExpand
  • 5,286
  • 614
Monotone Instrumental Variables with an Application to the Returns to Schooling
Econometric analyses of treatment response commonly use instrumental variable (IV) assumptions to identify treatment effects. Yet the credibility of IV assumptions is often a matter of considerableExpand
  • 527
  • 86
  • PDF
The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples
Ti-H CONCERN of this paper is the estimation of the parameters of a probabilistic choice model when choices rather than decision makers are sampled. Existing estimation methods presuppose anExpand
  • 1,202
  • 56
Identification Problems in the Social Sciences.
Methodological research in the social sciences aims to learn what conclusions can and cannot be drawn given empirically relevant combinations of assumptions and data. Methodologists have long foundExpand
  • 805
  • 53
SEMIPARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF RANDOM EFFECTS LINEAR MODELS FROM BINARY PANEL DATA
Andersen_(1970) considered the problem of inference on random effects linear models from binary response panel data, and showed that inference is possible if the disturbances for each panel memberExpand
  • 308
  • 37
  • PDF
Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters
We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held byExpand
  • 284
  • 35
  • PDF
Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling
We report here on the design and first application of an interactive computer-administered personal interview (CAPI) survey eliciting from high school students and college undergraduates theirExpand
  • 382
  • 33
  • PDF
Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations
An important objective of empirical research on treatment response is to provide decision makers with information useful in choosing treatments. This paper studies minimax-regret treatment choiceExpand
  • 253
  • 33
  • PDF
College Choice In America
The most crucial choice a high school graduate makes is whether to attend college or to go to work. Here is the most sophisticated study of the complexities behind that decision. Based on a uniqueExpand
  • 680
  • 31
Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?
Although the expected returns to schooling is the central concept in economic thinking on educational behavior, economists have made almost no effort to learn how youth form their expectations;Expand
  • 323
  • 25
  • PDF