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Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
TLDR
A simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia is used and it is shown that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8.
Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
TLDR
It is found that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2–3 weeks unless more than 99% effective, and vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy.
Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings
TLDR
Transmissibility is substantially higher than that of seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics, by analyzing the outbreak in Mexico, early data on international spread, and viral genetic diversity, which makes an early assessment of transmissibility and severity.
Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing
TLDR
A mathematical model for infectiousness was developed to estimate the basic reproductive number R0 and to quantify the contribution of different transmission routes and the requirements for successful contact tracing, and the combination of two key parameters needed to reduce R0 to less than 1 was determined.
A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics
TLDR
This tool produces novel, statistically robust analytical estimates of R that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of the serial interval and should help epidemiologists quantify temporal changes in the transmission intensity of future epidemics by using surveillance data.
Transmission Dynamics of the Etiological Agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of Public Health Interventions
TLDR
Transmission rates fell during the SARS epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals.
Recombination and the Nature of Bacterial Speciation
TLDR
It is suggested that the rate of recombination and its relation to genetic divergence have a strong influence on outcomes and it is proposed that a distinction be made between clonal divergence and sexual speciation.
Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable.
TLDR
It is concluded that severe acute respiratory syndrome and smallpox are easier to control using these simple public health measures and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent.
Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
TLDR
The epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong was assessed and public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts.
HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infection.
TLDR
Primary and late-stage HIV-1 infection are more infectious than previously estimated, but for shorter periods.
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