Bryan Ellickson

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This paper offers a new approach to the study of economic problems usually modeled as games of incomplete information with discontinuous payoffs. Typically, the discontinuities arise from indeterminacies (ties) in the underlying problem. The point of view taken here is that the tie-breaking rules that resolve these indeterminacies should be viewed as part(More)
This paper provides an extension of general equilibrium theory that incorporates the actions of individuals both as demanders and suppliers of goods and as members of firms, schools, social groups, and contractual relationships. The central notion of the paper is a group: a collection of individuals associated with one another for some purpose. The model(More)
This paper presents an exchange rate forecasting model that outperforms a random walk at short horizons and appears to be robust over different sample spans. Popular smoothing techniques are employed to remove the irregular blips from the noisy data so that the Markov model can capture precisely the trend persistence in exchange rates. Our finding hinges on(More)
This paper provides a novel approach to ordering signals based on the property that more informative signals lead to greater variability of conditional expectations. A new class of precision criteria is defined by combining this approach with different variability orders and its relation with existing criteria of informativeness explored. Then, precision(More)
This paper defines a general equilibrium model with exchange and club formation. Agents trade multiple private goods widely in the market, can belong to several clubs, and care about the characteristics of the other members of their clubs. The space of agents is a continuum, but clubs are finite. It is shown that (i) competitive equilibria exist, and (ii)(More)
Most of the literature argues that competitive analysis has nothing interesting to say about location. This paper argues, to the contrary, that a competitive model can have something interesting to say about location, provided that locations are not identical and transportation costs are not zero. To do this, it constructs a competitive intertemporal(More)