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Gray UROP Fund for their support. This paper would not have been possible without the help of a great many people. I am very grateful for the efforts that a number of journals made to supply me with data. In addition, many of the ideas in this paper were developed in the course of a series of conversations with other economists. I would especially like to(More)
¤ We thank Robert Anderson for tutelage and Kenneth Arrow and Joe Ostroy for helpful arguments.ees and the editor for many comments that improved both the content and the exposition. Abstract This paper de¯nes a general equilibrium model with exchange and club formation. Agents trade multiple private goods widely in the market, can belong to several clubs,(More)
1 This paper offers a new approach to the study of economic problems usually modeled as games of incomplete information with discontinuous payoffs. Typically, the discontinuities arise from indeterminacies (ties) in the underlying problem. The point of view taken here is that the tie-breaking rules that resolve these indeterminacies should be viewed as part(More)
This paper presents an exchange rate forecasting model that outperforms a random walk at short horizons and appears to be robust over different sample spans. Popular smoothing techniques are employed to remove the irregular blips from the noisy data so that the Markov model can capture precisely the trend persistence in exchange rates. Our finding hinges on(More)
* Earlier versions of this paper circulated under the title " A Model of Firm Formation and Skills Acquisition. " We thank seminar audiences at Zame) for financial support. We have discussed this work with many helpful people, including Abstract This paper provides an extension of general equilibrium theory that incorporates the actions of individuals both(More)
For most people, buying a house is one of the most significant investment decisions of their lifetimes. Economists have mainly focused on the consumption aspects of this process. For example, a typical model in urban economics might frame the decision of where to live as a discrete choice over a bundle of housing and neighborhood attributes such as(More)
This paper provides a novel approach to ordering signals based on the property that more informative signals lead to greater variability of conditional expectations. A new class of precision criteria is defined by combining this approach with different variability orders and its relation with existing criteria of informativeness explored. Then, precision(More)
This paper defines a general equilibrium model with exchange and club formation. Agents trade multiple private goods widely in the market, can belong to several clubs, and care about the characteristics of the other members of their clubs. The space of agents is a continuum, but clubs are finite. It is shown that (i) competitive equilibria exist, and (ii)(More)