Brendan Nyhan

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Political science researchers typically conduct an idiosyncratic search of possible model configurations and then present a single specification to readers. This approach systematically understates the uncertainty of our results, generates fragile model specifications, and leads to the estimation of bloated models with too many control variables. Bayesian(More)
Using rich data linking federal cases from arrest through sentencing, we assess the contribution of prosecutors' initial charging decisions to large observed blackwhite disparities in sentence length. Pre-charge characteristics, including arrest offense and criminal history, can explain about 80% of these disparities, but substantial gaps remain across the(More)
Seasonal influenza is responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of medical costs per year in the United States, but influenza vaccination coverage remains substantially below public health targets. One possible obstacle to greater immunization rates is the false belief that it is possible to contract the flu from the flu vaccine. A(More)
An increasing number of scholars are using longitudinal social network data to try to obtain estimates of peer or social influence effects. These data may provide additional statistical leverage, but they can introduce new inferential problems. In particular, while the confounding effects of homophily in friendship formation are widely appreciated,(More)
CONTEXT Misperceptions are a major problem in debates about health care reform and other controversial health issues. METHODS We conducted an experiment to determine if more aggressive media fact-checking could correct the false belief that the Affordable Care Act would create "death panels." Participants from an opt-in Internet panel were randomly(More)
Modern American political campaigns are typically conceptualized as “candidatecentered” and treated as conditionally independent in quantitative analyses. In reality, however, these campaigns are linked by professional consulting firms, who are important agents of campaign strategy diffusion within the extended party networks of the contemporary era. To(More)
  • John Aldrich, Michael Brady, +4 authors Michael Tofias
  • 2006
This paper considers the relationship between state demographics and the party and DWNOMINATE scores of Senators from the 73-108 Congress. We find that demographics are a significant but relatively weak predictor of party and DW-NOMINATE first dimension scores, while DW-NOMINATE second dimension scores are more closely related to demographics. We also find(More)