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Research was undertaken to assist practitioners in undertaking Monte Carlo simulation of project schedules. A probabilistic model was developed to translate project characteristics into schedule risk boundaries. This model has been tested in several projects and performed very well. Lessons learned during the application of Monte Carlo simulation to a large… (More)

Presents concepts and implementations for automated construction simulation modeling for aggregate crushing plant operations (CRUISER) and for earthmoving operations (AP2-EARTH). In the automated modeling environment, the user can specify a real-world construction system: its physical components, required resources and other system information. A simulation… (More)

A method for automatically improving the performance of construction operations was developed by the integration of computer simulation and belief networks. The simulation model is used to represent the operation and to determine the effect that changes in resource configuration have on the model performance. The belief network provides diagnostic analysis… (More)

This paper reviews two commonly used risk assessment tools, namely weighted scores and expected value. The limitations of weighted scores have been outlined. One of the more difficult aspects of the expected value method is to determine the probability of an event. A probabilistic modeling environment called belief networks, has been proposed as an… (More)

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