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The paper presents a new sampling methodology for Bayesian networks that samples only a subset of variables and applies exact inference to the rest. Cutset sampling is a network structure-exploiting application of the Rao-Blackwellisation principle to sampling in Bayesian networks. It improves convergence by exploiting memory-based inference algorithms. It… (More)

The paper investigates the behavior of iterative belief propagation algorithm (IBP) in Bayesian networks with loops. In multiply-connected network , IBP is only guaranteed to converge in linear time to the correct posterior marginals when evidence nodes form a loop-cutset. We propose an-cutset criteria that IBP will converge and compute posterior marginals… (More)

This paper presents an anytime scheme for computing lower and upper bounds on posterior marginals in Bayesian networks. The scheme draws from two previously proposed methods, bounded conditioning (Horvitz, Suermondt, & Cooper 1989) and bound propagation (Leisink & Kappen 2003). Following the principles of cutset conditioning (Pearl 1988), our method… (More)

This paper describes a general framework called Hybrid Dynamic Mixed Networks (HDMNs) which are Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks that allow representation of discrete deterministic information in the form of constraints. We propose approximate inference algorithms that integrate and adjust well known algorithmic principles such as Generalized Belief… (More)

Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on probability of evidence but does not have any guarantees in terms of relative or absolute error. Our proposed approximation is a… (More)

The paper studies empirically the time-space trade-off between sampling and inference in the cutset sampling algorithm. The algorithm samples over a subset of nodes in a Bayesian network and applies exact inference over the rest. As the size of the sampling space decreases, requiring less samples for convergence, the time for generating each single sample… (More)

The complexity of a reasoning task over a graph-ical model is tied to the induced width of the underlying graph. It is well-known that conditioning (assigning values) on a subset of variables yields a subproblem of the reduced complexity where instantiated variables are removed. If the assigned variables constitute a cycle-cutset, the rest of the network is… (More)

This paper extends previously proposed bound propagation algorithm [11] for computing lower and upper bounds on posterior marginals in Bayesian networks. We improve the bound propagation scheme by taking advantage of the directionality in Bayesian networks and applying the notion of relevant subnetwork. We also propose an approximation scheme for the linear… (More)

The complexity of a reasoning task over a graph-ical model is tied to the induced width of the underlying graph. It is well-known that the conditioning (assigning values) on a subset of variables yields a subproblem of the reduced complexity where instantiated variables are removed. If the assigned variables constitute a cycle-cutset, the rest of the… (More)