Ben Armstrong

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BACKGROUND Ambient temperature is an important determinant of daily mortality that is of interest both in its own right and as a confounder of other determinants investigated using time-series regressions, in particular, air pollution. The temperature-mortality relationship is often found to be substantially nonlinear and to persist (but change shape) with(More)
BACKGROUND Mortality increases with hot weather, although the extent to which lives are shortened is rarely quantified. We compare the extent to which short-term mortality displacement can explain heat deaths in Delhi, São Paulo, and London given contrasting demographic and health profiles. METHODS We examined time-series of daily mortality data in(More)
We investigated the relationship between environmental temperature and reported Salmonella infections in 10 European populations. Poisson regression adapted for time-series data was used to estimate the percentage change in the number of cases associated with a 1 degree C increase in average temperature above an identified threshold value. We found, on(More)
BACKGROUND Heat waves have been linked with an increase in mortality, but the associated risk has been only partly characterized. METHODS We examined this association by decomposing the risk for temperature into a "main effect" due to independent effects of daily high temperatures, and an "added" effect due to sustained duration of heat during waves,(More)
BACKGROUND This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. METHODS The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town,(More)
BACKGROUND Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature,(More)
We used Comparative Risk Assessment methods to estimate the health effects of alternative urban land transport scenarios for two settings-London, UK, and Delhi, India. For each setting, we compared a business-as-usual 2030 projection (without policies for reduction of greenhouse gases) with alternative scenarios-lower-carbon-emission motor vehicles,(More)
BACKGROUND Fibrous tremolite is a widespread amphibole asbestiform mineral, airborne fibres of which constitute an environmental hazard in Libby, Montana, northern California, and elsewhere. AIMS To determine excess risk from lung cancer, mesothelioma, and all-cause mortality in a cohort of men exposed to tremolite, but no other form of asbestos. (More)
Random error (misclassification) in exposure measurements usually biases a relative risk, regression coefficient, or other effect measure towards the null value (no association). The most important exception is Berkson type error, which causes little or no bias. Berkson type error arises, in particular, due to use of group average exposure in place of(More)
BACKGROUND Reported rises in the prevalence of hypospadias and other abnormalities of the male reproductive system may be a result of exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals. AIMS To analyse the relation between risk of hypospadias and maternal occupation, particularly with regard to exposure to potential endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). (More)