Baruch Fischhoff

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One major difference between historical and nonhistorical judgment is that the historical judge typically knows how things turned out. In Experiment 1, receipt of such outcome knowledge was found to increase the postdicted likelihood of reported events and change the perceived relevance of eventdescriptive data, regardless of the likelihood of the outcome(More)
The aftermath of September 11th highlights the need to understand how emotion affects citizens' responses to risk. It also provides an opportunity to test current theories of such effects. On the basis of appraisal-tendency theory, we predicted opposite effects for anger and fear on risk judgments and policy preferences. In a nationally representative(More)
This study asks to what extent (a) individuals show consistent performance differences across typical behavioral decision-making tasks, and (b) how those differences correlate with plausible real-world correlates of good decision making. Seven tasks, chosen to span the domain of decision-making skills, were administered to participants in an ongoing(More)
Over the past twenty years, risk communication researchers and practitioners have learned some lessons, often at considerable personal price. For the most part, the mistakes that they have made have been natural, even intelligent ones. As a result, the same pitfalls may tempt newcomers to the field. This essay offers a personal (even confessional) history(More)
Many health risks are the result of deliberate decisions by individuals consciously trying to get the best deal possible for themselves and for those important to them. Some of these choices are private ones, such as whether to wear bicycle helmets and seatbelts, whether to read and follow safety warnings, whether to buy and use condoms, and how to select(More)
A longitudinal randomized design was used to evaluate the impact of a theoretically based, stand-alone interactive video intervention on 300 urban adolescent girls' (a) knowledge about sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), (b) self-reported sexual risk behavior, and (c) STD acquisition. It was compared to two controls, representing high-quality(More)
Managing risks is an important part of growing up. Young people must decide whether to do things that they do not like (e.g., homework) in the hopes of getting things that they do (e.g., good jobs). They must also decide whether to avoid doing things that they do like (e.g., drinking heavily) in order to reduce the risk of outcomes that they do not (e.g.,(More)
Eliciting people's values is a central pursuit in many areas of the social sciences, including survey research, attitude research, economics, and behavior decision theory. These disciplines differ considerably in the core assumptions they make about the nature of the values that are available for elicitation. These assumptions lead to very different(More)
The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for(More)