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The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
TLDR
This paper describes the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Expand
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Climate Change Projections in CESM1(CAM5) Compared to CCSM4
AbstractFuture climate change projections for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are presented for the Community Earth System Model version 1 that includes the CommunityExpand
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Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures
Abstract. The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged withExpand
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Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations
A linear analysis is applied to a multi-thousand member “perturbed physics" GCM ensemble to identify the dominant physical processes responsible for variation in climate sensitivity across theExpand
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A Multimodel Study of Parametric Uncertainty in Predictions of Climate Response to Rising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Abstract One tool for studying uncertainties in simulations of future climate is to consider ensembles of general circulation models where parameterizations have been sampled within their physicalExpand
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Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate
Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extremeExpand
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Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble
Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying themExpand
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Climate Feedbacks in CCSM3 under Changing CO2 Forcing. Part I: Adapting the Linear Radiative Kernel Technique to Feedback Calculations for a Broad Range of Forcings
AbstractClimate feedbacks vary strongly among climate models and continue to represent a major source of uncertainty in estimates of the response of climate to anthropogenic forcings. One method toExpand
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A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble
TLDR
A method is proposed for selecting diverse and skillful subsets of models in the archive, which could be used for impact studies in cases where physically consistent joint projections of multiple variables (and their temporal and spatial characteristics) are required. Expand
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Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise
A modelling study shows that cutting greenhouse-gas emissions has the potential to stabilize global temperature increases, but predicts that sea level will continue to rise for centuries, and rapidlyExpand
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