• Publications
  • Influence
Choice and the relative pleasure of consequences.
  • B. Mellers
  • Psychology
    Psychological bulletin
  • 1 November 2000
TLDR
Attempts to model pleasure and pain in terms of utilities, decision weights, and counterfactual comparisons are examined.
Decision Affect Theory: Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Risky Options
How do people feel about the outcomes of risky options? Results from two experiments demonstrate that the emotional reaction to a monetary outcome is not a simple function of the utility of that
Emotion-based choice
In this article the authors develop a descriptive theory of choice using anticipated emotions. People are assumed to anticipate how they will feel about the outcomes of decisions and use their
Racial prejudice and attitudes toward affirmative action
Theory: We examine the relationship between blatant racial prejudice and anger toward affirmative action. Hypotheses: (1) Blatantly prejudiced attitudes continue to pervade the white population in
American attitudes toward nudges
To successfully select and implement nudges, policy makers need a psychological understanding of who opposes nudges, how they are perceived, and when alternative methods (e.g., forced choice) might
Extending the Bounds of Rationality: Evidence and Theories of Preferential Choice
Most economists define rationality in terms of consistency principles. These principles place ?bounds? on rationality?bounds that range from perfect consistency to weak stochastic transitivity.
Anticipated Emotions as Guides to Choice
When making decisions, people often anticipate the emotions they might experience as a result of the outcomes of their choices. In the process, they simulate what life would be like with one outcome
Strong claims and weak evidence: reassessing the predictive validity of the IAT.
TLDR
The authors reanalyzed data from 2 influential studies that explore links between implicit bias and discriminatory behavior and that have been invoked to support strong claims about the predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test to reveal a pattern of behavior consistent with a pro-Black behavioral bias, rather than the anti-Black bias suggested in the original study.
Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme
TLDR
It is shown that the same transformation function can approximately eliminate both distorting effects with different parameters for the mean and the median, and how, in principle, use of the median can help distinguish the two effects.
Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
TLDR
Support is found for three psychological drivers of accuracy: training, teaming, and tracking in a 2-year geopolitical forecasting tournament that produced the best forecasts 2 years in a row.
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