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Thirteen theorems in search of the truth
We review recent work on the accuracy of group judgmental processes as a function of (a) the competences (judgmental accuracies) of individual group members, (b) the group decision procedure, and (c)
A Unified Theory of Party Competition: A Cross-National Analysis Integrating Spatial and Behavioral Factors
1. Modeling party competition 2. How voters decide: the components of the unified theory of voting 3. Linking voter choice to party strategies: illustrating the role of non-policy factors 4. Factors
Modeling Negative Campaigning
Negative campaigning is an important aspect of campaign competition but plays little or no role in existing models of campaigns. Within the context of plurality elections for a single office we model
Measuring Compactness and the Role of a Compactness Standard in a Test for Partisan and Racial Gerrymandering
As we move into the 1990s, compactness of legislative districts is likely to take on greater importance because of its relevance to questions of racial and partisan discrimination. We show that at
Optimizing group judgmental accuracy in the presence of interdependencies
AbstractConsider a group of people confronted with a dichotomous choice (for example, a yes or no decision). Assume that we can characterize each person by a probability, pi, of making the ‘better’
Behavioral Social Choice - Probabilistic Models, Statistical Inference, and Applications
This work investigates the lack of theoretical and practical support for majority cycles in probabilistic models of social choice behavior and proposes a general concept of majority rule.
▪ Abstract We take as our starting point the insights of Downs (1957) into two-party competition. A careful reading of Downs offers a much more sophisticated and nuanced portrait of the factors
Mapping the Indices of Seats–Votes Disproportionality and Inter-Election Volatility
Measures of electoral system disproportionality and of party system volatility (as well as malapportionment and vote splitting) present similar statistical issues in terms of deciding what index is
A Unified Theory of Voting: Directional and Proximity Spatial Models
1. Introduction Part I. Models of Voter Behavior: 2. Alternative models of issue voting 3. A unified model of issue voting: proximity, direction, and intensity 4. Comparing the empirical fit of the