• Publications
  • Influence
Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals
The first global map (228 countries) of antibiotic consumption in livestock is presented and it is projected that antimicrobial consumption will rise by 67% by 2030, and nearly double in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Expand
Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape
An individual farm–based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution, and shows that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. Expand
Global antibiotic consumption 2000 to 2010: an analysis of national pharmaceutical sales data.
To prevent a striking rise in resistance in low-income and middle-income countries with large populations and to preserve antibiotic efficacy worldwide, programmes that promote rational use through coordinated efforts by the international community should be a priority. Expand
Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep.
This work analyzed the effect of density, extrinsic climatic fluctuations, and demography on the irregular pattern of population crashes of Soay sheep on the St. Kilda archipelago, United Kingdom. Expand
An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50), and suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. Expand
Synchrony, Waves, and Spatial Hierarchies in the Spread of Influenza
Influenza-related mortality data is used to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years and a simple epidemiological model captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility. Expand
Unifying the Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogens
A phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates is introduced. Expand
Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach
The dynamic behaviour of the time series model is studied and it is shown that episodes of annual cyclicity arise as a response to a quicker replenishment of the susceptible class during the baby boom, around 1947. Expand
A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics.
This work has shown that measles is a natural ecological system that exhibits different dynamical transitions at different times and places, yet all of these transitions can be predicted as bifurcations of a single nonlinear model. Expand
Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States
Here, the authors demonstrate that variations of absolute humidity explain both the onset of wintertime influenza transmission and the overarching seasonality of this pathogen in temperate regions.