• Publications
  • Influence
How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits
One of the fundamental questions addressed by risk-benefit analysis is “How safe is safe enough?” Chauncey Starr has proposed that economic data be used to reveal patterns of acceptable risk-benefitExpand
Effects of Fear and Anger on Perceived Risks of Terrorism
The aftermath of September 11th highlights the need to understand how emotion affects citizens' responses to risk and provides an opportunity to test current theories of such effects, and predicted opposite effects for anger and fear on risk judgments and policy preferences. Expand
Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980
From the subjectivist point of view (de Finetti, 1937/1964), a probability is a degree of belief in a proposition. It expresses a purely internal state; there is no “right,” “correct,” or “objective”Expand
Risk perception and communication unplugged: twenty years of process.
  • B. Fischhoff
  • Engineering, Medicine
  • Risk analysis : an official publication of the…
  • 1 April 1995
A personal (even confessional) history of the field over this period is offered and a series of developmental stages are identified, which involves consolidating the skills needed to execute it and learning its limitations. Expand
Individual differences in adult decision-making competence.
Adult Decision-Making Competence appears to be a distinct construct relevant to adults' real-world decisions and less likely to report negative life events indicative of poor decision making, as measured by the Decision Outcomes Inventory. Expand
Judged frequency of lethal events
A series of 5 experiments with 660 adult Ss studied how people judge the frequency of death from various causes. The judgments exhibited a highly consistent but systematically biased subjective scaleExpand
Hindsight ≠ foresight: the effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty*
It is argued that a lack of awareness of outcome knowledge can seriously restrict one’s ability to judge or learn from the past. Expand
What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? 1. Mental Models
A set of exploratory studies and mental model interviews was conducted in order to characterize public understanding of climate change. In general, respondents regarded global warming as both bad andExpand
Facts and Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk
Subjective judgments, whether by experts or lay people, are a major component in any risk assessment. If such judgments are faulty, efforts at public and environmental protection are likely to beExpand