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The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO 2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO 2 price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by(More)
According to the standard analysis of commodity prices, stockpiling is a necessary signature of speculation. This paper develops an approach suggesting that speculation may temporarily push crude oil prices above the level justified by physical-market fundamentals, without necessarily resulting in a significant increase in oil inventories. Looking beyond(More)
This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO 2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for economic growth. Each scenario is characterized by the likelihood of a rapid global economic recovery. More precisely, during each(More)
In various fields of economic endeavor, agents enjoy the option to " try, try again. " Failure in a particular pursuit often brings renewed effort to finally succeed. Many areas of R&D could be characterized in this fashion. Our purpose is to define and measure the value of this option to try again. The value of repeated trials is closely related to the(More)
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