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Monetary policy rules based on real-time data
In recent years, simple policy rules have received attention as a means to a more transparent and effective monetary policy. Often, however, the analysis is based on unrealistic assumptions about the
Monetary policy rules based on real-time data
In recent years, simple policy rules have received attention as a means to a more transparent and effective monetary policy. Often, however, the analysis is based on unrealistic assumptions about the
Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
We examine the performance and robustness properties of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of structural change that renders the natural rates of interest and unemployment uncertain.
The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations
We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the
Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts
The estimation of dynamic no-arbitrage term structure models with a flexible specification of the market price of risk is beset by a severe small-sample problem arising from the highly persistent
Monetary Policy Evaluation with Noisy Information
This paper investigates the implications of noisy information regarding the measurement of economic activity for the evaluation of monetary policy. A common implicit assumption in such evaluations is
Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information
This paper investigates the implications of noisy information regarding the measurement of economic activity for the evaluation of monetary policy. A common implicit assumption in such evaluations is
Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches
I estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the Federal Reserve for the periods before and after Paul Volcker's appointment as Chairman in 1979, using information that was
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