Arkadiusz Wiśniowski

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In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to(More)
European Union (EU) enlargements in 2004 and 2007 were accompanied by increased migration from new-accession to established-member (EU-15) countries. The impacts of these flows depend, in part, on the amount of time that persons from the former countries live in the latter over the life course. In this paper, we develop period estimates of duration(More)
Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members(More)
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