Arkadiusz Wiśniowski

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In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to(More)
In this paper we identify the current mandatory requirements and issues concerning the supply of detailed migration data to Eurostat. Using simple illustrations on immigration to the United Kingdom, we show how substantial and significant improvements can be made to the flows reported by the International Passenger Survey, which contain irregularities and(More)
Over the next fifty years the potential impact on human livelihoods of environmental change could be considerable. One possible response may be increased levels of human mobility. This paper offers a first quantification of the levels of environmental migration to the United Kingdom that might be expected. The authors apply Bijak and Wiśniowski's (2010)(More)
Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members(More)
European Union (EU) enlargements in 2004 and 2007 were accompanied by increased migration from new-accession to established-member (EU-15) countries. The impacts of these flows depend, in part, on the amount of time that persons from the former countries live in the latter over the life course. In this paper, we develop period estimates of duration(More)
Cohort component models are often used to model the evolution of an age-specific population, and are particularly useful to highlight which demographic component contributes the most to population change. Many methods have been proposed to forecast four demographic components, namely mortality, fertility, emigration and immigration. These existing methods(More)
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