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- Ariel Cintrón-Arias, Carlos Castillo-Chávez, Luís M A Bettencourt, Alun L Lloyd, H T Banks
- Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
- 2009

We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number R(t). We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a generalized least squares (GLS) estimation technique. We do this in the context of appropriate statistical models for the measurement… (More)

- Ariel Cintron-Arias, Norman Curet, +4 authors Patrick Quillen
- 2000

- Luı́s M.A. Bettencourt, Ariel Cintrón-Arias, David I. Kaiser, Carlos Castillo-Chávez
- 2006

The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The standard benefit of modeling epidemics is the ability to estimate quantitatively population average parameters, such as… (More)

We propose an algorithm to select parameter subset combinations that can be estimated using an ordinary least-squares (OLS) inverse problem formulation with a given data set. First, the algorithm selects the parameter combinations that correspond to sensitivity matrices with full rank. Second, the algorithm involves uncertainty quantification by using the… (More)

The use of network models to describe the impact of local spatial structure on the spread of infections is discussed. In particular, we focus on small-world networks, within which the pattern of interactions can be varied from being entirely local to being entirely global as a single parameter is changed. Analysis approaches from graph theory, statistical… (More)

- Gerardo Chowell, Ariel Cintrón-Arias, +5 authors Carlos Castillo-Chávez
- 2005

Efforts to anticipate, prevent, or control deliberate releases of biological agents are critical components of homeland security research. The lack of data on deliberately induced epidemics naturally leads to the use of mathematical models (capable of simulating realistic scenarios) in the evaluation of policies that ensure our security. Modeling single… (More)

1 Abstract Relapse, the recurrence of a disorder following a symptomatic remission, is a frequent outcome in substance abuse disorders. Some of our prior results suggested that relapse, in the context of abusive drinking, is likely an " unbeatable " force as long as recovered individuals continue to interact in the environments that lead to and/or reinforce… (More)

For decades, dengue virus has been a cause of major public health concern in Costa Rica, due to its landscape and climatic conditions that favor the circumstances in which the vector, Aedes aegypti, thrives. The emergence and introduction throughout tropical and subtropical countries of the chikungunya virus, as of 2014, challenged Costa Rican health… (More)

- H. T. Banks, Kathleen Holm, Nathan C. Wanner, Ariel Cintrón-Arias, Grace M. Kepler, Jeffrey D. Wetherington
- Mathematical and Computer Modelling
- 2009

We present a preliminary first-pass dynamic model for delivery of drug compounds to the lungs and heart. We use a compartmental mass balance approach to develop a system of nonlinear differential equations for mass accumulated in the heart as a result of intravenous injection. We discuss sensitivity analysis as well as methodology for minimizing mass in the… (More)