Ariel Cintrón-Arias

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The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The standard benefit of modeling epidemics is the ability to estimate quantitatively population average parameters, such as(More)
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number R(t). We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a generalized least squares (GLS) estimation technique. We do this in the context of appropriate statistical models for the measurement(More)
We propose an algorithm to select parameter subset combinations that can be estimated using an ordinary least-squares (OLS) inverse problem formulation with a given data set. First, the algorithm selects the parameter combinations that correspond to sensitivity matrices with full rank. Second, the algorithm involves uncertainty quantification by using the(More)
We discuss methods for a priori selection of parameters to be estimated in inverse problem formulations (such as Maximum Likelihood, Ordinary and Generalized Least Squares) for dynamical systems with numerous state variables and an even larger number of parameters. We illustrate the ideas with an in-host model for HIV dynamics which has been successfully(More)
Efforts to anticipate, prevent, or control deliberate releases of biological agents are critical components of homeland security research. The lack of data on deliberately induced epidemics naturally leads to the use of mathematical models (capable of simulating realistic scenarios) in the evaluation of policies that ensure our security. Modeling single(More)
Relapse, the recurrence of a disorder following a symptomatic remission, is a frequent outcome in substance abuse disorders. Some of our prior results suggested that relapse, in the context of abusive drinking, is likely an “unbeatable” force as long as recovered individuals continue to interact in the environments that lead to and/or reinforce the(More)
The population vaccination effectiveness (PVE) is defined as the fraction of disease cases prevented by a vaccination campaign. We use occupancy urn models to estimate the PVE, and compare results for leaky, all-or-nothing and VEl (vaccine efficacy for infectiousness) vaccines using data of a measles outbreak and San Francisco current AIDS epidemic. This(More)
Tracking vehicles in flight with range capable sensors can provide very precise position and velocity estimates. If the sensor is only capable of making angular measurements, the estimates will not be as accurate. It is desired to have a bound on the estimates of the position and velocity under the relatively modest assumption that the vehicle is flying(More)