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We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number R(t). We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a generalized least squares (GLS) estimation technique. We do this in the context of appropriate statistical models for the measurement… (More)

- Ariel Cintrón-Arias, H T Banks, Alex Capaldi, Alun L Lloyd
- 2009

We propose an algorithm to select parameter subset combinations that can be estimated using an ordinary least-squares (OLS) inverse problem formulation with a given data set. First, the algorithm selects the parameter combinations that correspond to sensitivity matrices with full rank. Second, the algorithm involves uncertainty quantification by using the… (More)

- Gerardo Chowell, Ariel Cintrón-Arias, Sara Del Valle, Fabio Sánchez, Baojun Song, James M Hyman +2 others
- 2005

Efforts to anticipate, prevent, or control deliberate releases of biological agents are critical components of homeland security research. The lack of data on deliberately induced epidemics naturally leads to the use of mathematical models (capable of simulating realistic scenarios) in the evaluation of policies that ensure our security. Modeling single… (More)

- Alun L Lloyd, Steve Valeika, Ariel Cintrón-Arias
- 2006

The use of network models to describe the impact of local spatial structure on the spread of infections is discussed. In particular, we focus on small-world networks, within which the pattern of interactions can be varied from being entirely local to being entirely global as a single parameter is changed. Analysis approaches from graph theory, statistical… (More)

1 Abstract Relapse, the recurrence of a disorder following a symptomatic remission, is a frequent outcome in substance abuse disorders. Some of our prior results suggested that relapse, in the context of abusive drinking, is likely an " unbeatable " force as long as recovered individuals continue to interact in the environments that lead to and/or reinforce… (More)

We present a preliminary first-pass dynamic model for delivery of drug compounds to the lungs and heart. We use a compartmental mass balance approach to develop a system of nonlinear differential equations for mass accumulated in the heart as a result of intravenous injection. We discuss sensitivity analysis as well as methodology for minimizing mass in the… (More)

The similarities between drinking behavior and contagion are used to explore — under two types of social structure in the population: homogenous and heterogeneous mixing— the role of nonlinear social interactions on the dynamics of alcohol consumption ; quantifying how some model parameters influence the latter dynamics. A deterministic model, assuming… (More)

- Anthony Billups, Reynaldo Castro-Estrada, Wilbert Fern, Tairi Roque-Urrea, Anthony Tongen, Ariel Cintrón-Arias +1 other
- 2004

The World Wide Web has proven useful in disseminating information. However, it is extremely difficult to track its spread in such a complex network. One simplification is to model it as a small Local Area Network. Previous work has shown that a gossip-based multicast can be an effective tool for modeling the flow of information on a local area network. We… (More)

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