Andrew Robert Smith

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People are often egocentric when judging their likelihood of success in competitions, leading to overoptimism about winning when circumstances are generally easy and to overpessimism when the circumstances are difficult. Yet, egocentrism might be grounded in a rational tendency to favor highly reliable information (about the self) more so than less reliable(More)
People must often perform calculations in order to produce a numeric estimate (e.g., a grocery-store shopper estimating the total price of his or her shopping cart contents). The current studies were designed to test whether estimates based on calculations are influenced by comparisons with irrelevant anchors. Previous research has demonstrated that(More)
Previous research into the relationship between knowledge level and anchoring effects has led to mixed conclusions. This paper presents four studies that used a diverse set of stimuli and paradigms to further investigate this relationship. In Study 1, greater knowledge was associated with smaller anchoring effects—both when knowledge was measured using(More)
In eusocial nests, colony task are divided among queens and workers, but how this division of labor develops is unknown for most species. We compared division of labor and aggressive behavior among queens and workers in the facultatively eusocial bee, Megalopta genalis, using nests with established queen-worker pairs and nests in which the incipient worker(More)
The present research concerns the hypothesis that intuitive estimates of the arithmetic mean of a sample of numbers tend to increase as a function of the sample size; that is, they reflect a systematic sample size bias. A similar bias has been observed when people judge the average member of a group of people on an inferred quantity (e.g., a disease risk;(More)
In 5 experiments, college students exhibited a group size effect on risk judgments. As the number of individuals in a target group increased, so did participants' judgments of the risk of the average member of the group for a variety of negative life events. This happened regardless of whether the stimuli consisted of photographs of real peers or(More)
Females commonly prefer to mate with males that provide greater material benefits, which they often select using correlated male signals. When females select higher-benefit males based on correlated signals, however, males can potentially deceive females by producing exaggerated signals of benefit quality. The handicap mechanism can prevent lower-quality(More)
A surprisingly large concentration of radioactive Be was observed in the upper atmosphere at altitudes above 320 km on the LDEF satellite that was recovered in January 1990. We report on follow-up experiments on Russian spacecraft at altitudes of 167 to 370 km during the period of 1996 to 1999, specifically designed to measure Be concentrations in low earth(More)
Previous studies that have directly manipulated outcome desirability have often found little effect on likelihood judgments (i.e., no desirability bias or wishful thinking). The present studies tested whether selections of new information about outcomes would be impacted by outcome desirability, thereby biasing likelihood judgments. In Study 1, participants(More)