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The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by model errors created by utilizing an imperfect model for filtering. Updating the parameters in the imperfect model through stochastic parameter estimation is one way to increase filtering skill and model performance. Here a suite of stringent test models for filtering with stochastic… (More)

Recent observational analysis reveals the central role of three multicloud types, congestus, stratiform, and deep convective cumulus clouds, in the dynamics of large-scale convectively coupled Kelvin waves, westward propagating two-day waves, and the Madden–Julian oscillation. A systematic model convective pa-rameterization highlighting the dynamic role of… (More)

- Peter Constantint, Andrew J Majda, Esteban Tab
- 2002

The formation of smng and potentially singular fronts in a two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic active scalar is studied here through the symbiotic interaction of mathematical theory and numerical experiments. This active scalar represents the temperature evolving on the two dimensional boundary of a rapidly rotating half space with small Rosshy and Ekman… (More)

The filtering and predictive skill for turbulent signals is often limited by the lack of information about the true dynamics of the system and by our inability to resolve the assumed dynamics with sufficiently high resolution using the current computing power. The standard approach is to use a simple yet rich family of constant parameters to account for… (More)

The filtering skill for turbulent signals from nature is often limited by errors due to utilizing an imperfect forecast model. In particular, real-time filtering and prediction when very limited or no a posteriori analysis is possible (e.g. spread of pollutants, storm surges, tsu-nami detection, etc.) introduces a number of additional challenges to the… (More)

A statistically exactly solvable model for passive tracers is introduced as a test model for the authors' Nonlinear Extended Kalman Filter (NEKF) as well as other filtering algorithms. The model involves a Gaussian velocity field and a passive tracer governed by the advec-tion–diffusion equation with an imposed mean gradient. The model has direct relevance… (More)

In this paper we present a new class of coarse-grained stochastic processes and Monte Carlo simulations, derived directly from microscopic lattice systems and describing mesoscopic length scales. As our primary example, we mainly focus on a microscopic spin-flip model for the adsorption and desorption of molecules between a surface adjacent to a gas phase,… (More)

A multiscale model of the MJO is developed here that accounts, in a simplified fashion, for both the upscale transfer from synoptic to planetary scales of momentum and temperature from wave trains of thermally driven equatorial synoptic-scale circulations in a moving convective envelope as well as direct mean heating on planetary scales. This model involves… (More)

Diverse scientific disciplines ranging from materials science to catalysis to biomolecular dynamics to climate modeling involve nonlinear interactions across a large range of physically significant length scales. Here a class of coarse-grained stochastic processes and corresponding Monte Carlo simulation methods, describing computationally feasible… (More)