Andreas Graefe

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BACKGROUND The evolving concepts of pervasive computing, ubiquitous computing and ambient intelligence are increasingly influencing health care and medicine. Summarizing published research, this literature review provides an overview of recent developments and implementations of pervasive computing systems in health care. It also highlights some of the(More)
he success of prediction markets in the field of election forecasting made them increasingly appealing to organizations and a number of companies started to experiment with them. However, despite widespread initial interest and years of experimental use, there are no major organizations known to use prediction markets as an integral part of their(More)
We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The bioindex method counts the number of variables for which a candidate rates favourably, and the forecast is that the candidate with the highest score would win the popular vote. The bio-index relies on different information and includes more variables(More)
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and prediction markets. Delphi is relatively simple and cheap to implement and has been adopted for diverse applications in business and government since its origins in(More)
Two lethal poisonings by butane and propane are described, and the corresponding concentrations in the body fluids and organ tissues are evaluated. One case appeared to be an accident after deliberate inhalation for butane, one was a suicide. The mechanism of the inhalation could be reconstructed in both cases. The concentrations in the biological material(More)
OBJECTIVES This study evaluated the microleakage and internal seal of fissure sealants placed by use of self-etching priming agents in comparison to phosphoric acid etching of enamel. METHODS Seventy-two caries-free extracted human molars were divided into six groups with 12 teeth each. Occlusal surfaces were cleansed by either pumicing (Groups I, III, V)(More)
We conducted laboratory experiments to analyze the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) compared to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 participants (11 groups per method) that had to solve a quantitative judgment task that did not involve distributed knowledge. This task consisted of(More)
This article proposes a unifying theory, or Golden Rule, of forecasting. The Golden Rule of Forecasting is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek out and use all knowledge relevant to the problem, including knowledge of methods validated(More)