Alysha M De Livera

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A new innovations state space modeling framework, incorporating Box-Cox transformations, Fourier series with time varying coefficients and ARMA error correction, is introduced for forecasting complex seasonal time series that cannot be handled using existing forecasting models. Such complex time series include time series with multiple seasonal periods,(More)
BACKGROUND Sexual dysfunction (SD) is very common in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) and contributes a significant burden of disease, particularly for young people. SD has direct neurological contributions from depression and fatigue, which occur commonly in PwMS. Modifiable factors may represent potential targets for treatment and prevention of SD.(More)
Metabolomics research often requires the use of multiple analytical platforms, batches of samples, and laboratories, any of which can introduce a component of unwanted variation. In addition, every experiment is subject to within-platform and other experimental variation, which often includes unwanted biological variation. Such variation must be removed in(More)
OBJECTIVE To determine which antenatal and early-life factors were associated with infant postnatal growth in a resource-poor setting in Vietnam. STUDY DESIGN Prospective longitudinal study following infants (n=1046) born to women who had previously participated in a cluster randomised trial of micronutrient supplementation (ANZCTR:12610000944033), Ha Nam(More)
AIMS Genetics plays an important role in coronary heart disease (CHD) but the clinical utility of genomic risk scores (GRSs) relative to clinical risk scores, such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), is unclear. Our aim was to construct and externally validate a CHD GRS, in terms of lifetime CHD risk and relative to traditional clinical risk scores. (More)
BACKGROUND The association between malaria during pregnancy and low birth weight (LBW) is well described. This manuscript aims to quantify the relative contribution of malaria to small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants and preterm birth (PTB) in pregnancies accurately dated by ultrasound on the Thai-Myanmar border at the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit. (More)
BACKGROUND Whilst the global burden of caries is increasing, the trajectory of decay in young children and the point at which prevention should occur has not been well established. AIM To identify the 'natural history' of dental caries in early childhood. DESIGN A birth cohort study was established with 467 mother/child dyads followed at 1, 6, 12, 18,(More)
Repeated continuous outcome measures are common in clinical trials. In this tutorial style paper, using data collected from a trial evaluating an intervention for managing asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, we demonstrate ways of statistically analysing such data to answer frequently encountered clinical research questions. We illustrate the(More)
Leaf material from nine Ni hyperaccumulating species was collected in New Caledonia: Homalium kanaliense (Vieill.) Briq., Casearia silvana Schltr, Geissois hirsuta Brongn. & Gris, Hybanthus austrocaledonicus Seem, Psychotria douarrei (G. Beauvis.) Däniker, Pycnandra acuminata (Pierre ex Baill.) Swenson & Munzinger (syn Sebertia acuminata Pierre ex Baill.),(More)
OBJECTIVE Emerging evidence links modifiable lifestyle risk factors to disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS). We sought further evidence around this hypothesis through detailed analysis of the association with disability of lifestyle behaviours of a large international sample of people with MS. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 2469 people with MS(More)