Alison P. Galvani

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In pandemic and epidemic forms, influenza causes substantial, sometimes catastrophic, morbidity and mortality. Intense selection from the host immune system drives antigenic change in influenza A and B, resulting in continuous replacement of circulating strains with new variants able to re-infect hosts immune to earlier types. This 'antigenic drift' often(More)
Influenza vaccination is vital for reducing infection-mediated morbidity and mortality. To maximize effectiveness, vaccination programs must anticipate the effects of public perceptions and attitudes on voluntary adherence. A vaccine allocation strategy that is optimal for the population is not necessarily optimal for an individual. For epidemic influenza,(More)
Multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis is a growing clinical and public-health concern. To evaluate existing evidence regarding treatment regimens for MDR tuberculosis, we used a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis of the available therapeutic studies to assess how the reported proportion of patients treated successfully is influenced by differences in(More)
The criteria to assess public health policies are fundamental to policy optimization. Using a model parametrized with survey-based contact data and mortality data from influenza pandemics, we determined optimal vaccine allocation for five outcome measures: deaths, infections, years of life lost, contingent valuation, and economic costs. We find that optimal(More)
The ongoing Ebola outbreak poses an alarming risk to the countries of West Africa and beyond. To assess the effectiveness of containment strategies, we developed a stochastic model of Ebola transmission between and within the general community, hospitals, and funerals, calibrated to incidence data from Liberia. We find that a combined approach of case(More)
The rapid expansion and increasing mobility of human populations make understanding the evolution of parasite virulence a public health priority. The potential for the swift evolution of virulence in response to changes in host ecology has motivated the integration of evolutionary ecology with epidemiological theory, as part of the emerging field of(More)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been transmitted extensively within hospitals, and healthcare workers (HCWs) have comprised a large proportion of SARS cases worldwide. We present a stochastic model of a SARS outbreak in a community and its hospital. For a range of basic reproductive numbers (R(0)) corresponding to conditions in different cities(More)
BACKGROUND The Ebola outbreak that is sweeping across West Africa is the largest, most volatile, and deadliest Ebola epidemic ever recorded. Liberia is the most profoundly affected country, with more than 3500 infections and 2000 deaths recorded in the past 3 months. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the contribution of disease progression and case fatality on(More)
Recent vaccine scares and sudden spikes in vaccine demand remind us that the effectiveness of mass vaccination programs is governed by the public perception of vaccination. Previous work has shown that the tendency of individuals to optimize self-interest can lead to vaccination levels that are suboptimal for a community. We use game theory to relate(More)
BACKGROUND Extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis has spread among hospitalised patients in South Africa, but the epidemic-level effect of hospital-based infection control strategies remains unknown. We modelled the plausible effect of rapidly available infection control strategies on the overall course of the XDR tuberculosis epidemic in a rural(More)