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Our answer: not so well. We reach that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.(More)
We study a class of models in which the law of motion perceived by agents influences the law of motion that they actually face. We assume that agents update their perceived law of motion by least squares. We show how the perceived law of motion and the actual one may converge to one another, depending on the behavior of a particular ordinary differential(More)
We propose an integrated treatment of the problems of optimal monetary and fiscal policy, for an economy in which prices are sticky (so that the supply-side effects of tax changes are more complex than in standard fiscal analyses) and the only available sources of government revenue are distorting taxes (so that the fiscal consequences of monetary policy(More)
In 2004 all publications will carry a motif taken from the €100 banknote. and participants at the CEPR-INSEAD conference on " Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Theory, Evidence, Challenges " for helpful comments and discussions.Views expressed reflect exclusively the authors' own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank.(More)
Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that(More)
and participants in various seminars and conferences for helpful comments. Abstract This paper recasts Temin's 1976 question of whether monetary forces caused the Great Depression in a recursive time series framework. We adopt Bayesian updating techniques for estimation and forecasting to spot structural breaks and monetary regime changes. Examining(More)
In this paper we develop a recursive approach to study efficient allocations in a dynamic moral hazard setting, where agents can borrow and lend and their decisions about effort, consumption and savings are private information. The recursive formulation of the problem is based on a generalized first order approach, whose validity is verified using a(More)
Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that(More)
We present a decision theoretic framework in which agents are learning about market behavior and that provides microfoundations for models of adaptive learning. Agents are 'internally rational', i.e., maximize discounted expected utility under uncertainty given dynamically consistent subjective beliefs about the future, but agents may not be 'externally(More)